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Once per quarter we give you an update on ETHENEA's macroeconomic house view. This time, Dr. Andrea Siviero explains the factors that make a recession increasingly likely.

Investors have countless resources to draw from when making investment decisions. We often need the benefit of hindsight to know whether or not it’s worth heeding stock-market proverbs. One thing is for certain, which is that, in reality, a whole array of factors play a role. Things constantly have to be weighed up, we have to proceed tactically and, if need be, corrections made. And we need to be able to hold firm to offer the investor added value in the end. In our latest Market Commentary, Michael Blümke gives readers a look behind the scenes of active portfolio management.

After several consecutive months of record high inflation levels, the ECB finally acted – or rather reacted – in July, raising interest rates for the first time in more than ten years. In our latest Market Commentary, Dr Andrea Siviero assesses this move and considers its effects and consequences.

Against the backdrop of the 2012 debt crisis, Mario Draghi’s “whatever it takes” speech was a statement of strong commitment to the eurozone and marked the turning point towards a resolution of the crisis. We at ETHENEA all agree that the current situation also calls for strong measures. Find out from Dr Volker Schmidt why we believe a change of direction in monetary policy is necessary.

Every quarter, we update you on ETHENEA’s in-house macro-economic view. In this issue, Dr Andrea Siviero explains why we think a soft landing is becoming increasingly difficult.

Last month we talked about the economic outlook. We believe a soft landing is still possible but is getting less likely. Making the correct policy decisions is key, but is becoming more and more difficult in the current uncertain environment. What developments are monetary and fiscal policy makers likely to have to deal with? What scope do they have to make decisions? Dr Volker Schmidt takes a look ahead in our latest Market Commentary.