Our experts bring you their latest insights about the capital markets.
Hindsight is always 20/20. So at the beginning of the new year, we usually look back on the year gone by. How did 2018 go and what could affect the financial markets in 2019? Senior Portfolio Manager Guido Barthels sums it all up.
On 23 June 2016 the UK voted to leave the European Union. The protracted withdrawal negotiations finally came to an end on 25 November 2018, or at least the EU and the UK government hope so. Now it’s the UK Parliament’s turn to decide. Brexit or exit from Brexit? In addition, Guido Barthels discusses the first signs the market is showing of an economic downturn.
Fin de siècle conjures up an image of the end of an era. Although a recession is not yet on the horizon, in our Market Commentary Guido Barthels looks at the signs that an end is nigh and points out the differences between economic development in the U.S. and Europe.
It’s happened to all of us: trying to get the ketchup out of the bottle, we turn it upside down and give the bottom a smack. Nothing comes out. We smack it again and again until, finally and all at once, too much comes out too fast. That’s the ketchup principle.
In the past few years, various parties have compared the surprising absence of inflation to this very ketchup principle though despite much smacking of the bottle, not much inflation has been produced yet in many places
The current U.S. economic cycle has already lasted for a long time. It’s hardly surprising, then, that there has been much debate about whether or not a recession will set in and, if so, when. It would have a significant impact on the global economy – and on Europe. But how likely is a recession really? The various models looking at changes in yield curves could provide some indication. You can read Guido Barthel’s piece on curve sketching here.