Point de gestion | HESPER FUND - Global Solutions

HESPER FUND – Global Solutions (*)

State: 06/05/26

Key points at a glance

• US and Iran sink into awkward limbo of “no war, no peace”. Oil surged past $ 125 as fears of prolonged supply disruption grew.
• After two months of acute oil supply disruptions, most central banks such as the Fed, RBC, ECB, BoE and BoJ left rates unchanged, pondering their next step to cope with the energy shock as uncertainty about the war’s length remains and inflation risks mount.
• The global economy should weaken but remain resilient, underpinned by fiscal support, the AI investment boom and hesitant central banks that see no need to rush into action, despite accelerating inflation.
• Acute trade disruptions, uncertainty about the length’s war, and a fading rules-based international order occur amid what is called the fourth industrial revolution through AI and robotics.
• The HESPER FUND – Global Solutions (T-6 EUR) rebounded 2.8% in April, underpinned by the strength of Wall Street, the rally in commodity prices, FX trades and the neutralization of the overall duration. Year to date, the fund has advanced 3.1%.
• The HESPER FUND adjusted its portfolio to navigate war and stagflation fears as the peace negotiations stall.

HESPER FUND – Global Solutions macro scenario: A war of attrition is never short

The US and Israel military campaign against Iran has transitioned into a fragile equilibrium, with intermittent ceasefires failing to resolve a deepening standoff over the Strait of Hormuz, which remains closed to commercial shipping. The situation impact differently the various regions and economies with Europe among the most damaged.

Headwinds for the global economy mount as Middle East war pushes price growth higher.  The outlook for bonds worsened markedly. Most central banks kept rates unchanged by the end of April while assessing inflation expectations evolution to eventually hike.

Tech stocks continue to rally as developments in the AI space accelerate while big tech continue to grind earnings.

Monthly performance and current positioning

The HESPER FUND – Global Solutions (T-6 EUR) advanced 2.8% over the period, driven by a well-calibrated equity allocation, targeted commodity exposure, selective foreign-exchange positioning, and a deliberate absence of duration risk. Total assets under management expanded 2.4% to €50.4 million.

Trailing 250-day annualized volatility edged lower to 7.3%, underscoring the portfolio's disciplined risk profile, while the annualized return since inception climbed to 4.0%.

Oil continues to trade at very high prices on doubts over Iran peace talks. We remain vigilant on policy and geopolitical developments. During the month, the fund kept duration very low at 1.4 years with a mixed of long/short plays. Hesper rebuilt partially the equity quota from 17% up to 38% raising exposure to US big caps. The fund's gold exposure was actively managed throughout the month, with positioning adjusted on several occasions before settling at 7%, encompassing both exchange-traded commodities and equity stakes in gold mining companies. The exposure to commodities was kept at 6%, helping to shrug off higher energy prices. Hesper took profit on a FX trade in favour the Norwegian krone (40%) and opened a new one betting on the appreciation of the Australian dollar against the U.S. dollar (25%).

Outlook: Trump struggles to find the endgame

The sharp pivot in US economic, political, military and geopolitical policy reached the apex with the war against Iran. We expect significant fallout that might reshape globalization. The US leadership is not what it used to be, and many alliances are going to be reshuffled. The new era of resource imperialism comes with risks.

In Trump’s world, policy unpredictability is the norm, and we adapt the portfolio frequently to capitalise or cushion on the fallout from his decisions. We therefore avoid large, concentrated bets.

Summing up, the HESPER FUND – Global Solutions remains constructive on stocks depending on region and sectors, wary about the trend of yields as inflation bites and keen on commodities. On the FX space we expect appreciation of NOK and AUD. On the mid term with expect a weakening US dollar.

*HESPER FUND - Global Solutions is currently only authorised for distribution in Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, Italy, France, Austria and Switzerland.

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