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At the moment, hardly any topic concerns our investors as much as the question of where the US economy is heading. The debate is not only about potential interest rate changes by the Federal Reserve, but also increasingly about the political side of the economy.

The Federal Reserve (Fed) is currently undergoing a paradigm shift. What began as a skirmish on social media and expanded into selective political influence has developed into a systemic question of monetary policy power relations.

The Federal Reserve's immunity is eroding. What initially began with social media commentary and personnel disputes is now developing into the most profound intervention in American monetary policy in decades. What degree of autonomy can be maintained when the market itself becomes a complicit actor?

Despite stagnating growth and persistent core inflation, the European Central Bank is likely to keep interest rates unchanged for now. Risks are seen as balanced, with a focus on data dependence and flexibility. As the economy weakens, the ECB is keeping all options open – the next move could well be a rate cut.

Despite the lack of economic data due to the US government shutdown, the Federal Reserve is heading for another interest rate cut. With a reduction of 25 basis points, the central bank aims to cushion economic risks and secure liquidity.

Strength in the Economy, Fragility in Market Breadth – Where Investors Should Look Next