Portfolio Manager Update | HESPER FUND - Global Solutions

HESPER FUND – Global Solutions (*)

State: 06/02/26

Key points at a glance

• Amid peace deal prospects and an increasingly strained truce, the strait of Hormuz traffic has faded to a crawl after supertankers exit. However, US and Iran inch toward a deal despite flare-ups.
• Underpinned by a good earnings season and a frenzy in memory-chip stocks, Wall Street hit new record highs.
• After three months of acute oil supply disruptions, most central banks are leaning towards raising rates as inflation risks mount. The case of the Fed is more uncertain: the new Fed chairman, Kevin Warsh, mapped out a route to cut rates before his nomination.
• The global economy is expected to weaken but remains resilient. This is due to fiscal support, the boom in AI investment and the fact that central banks are reluctant to take action, despite accelerating inflation.
• The HESPER FUND – Global Solutions (T-6 EUR) gained 1.92% in May, underpinned by the rally on Wall Street, strong commodity prices, FX trades and the neutralisation of overall duration. Year to date, the fund has increased by 5.07%.
• The HESPER FUND – Global Solutions maintained a portfolio to help navigate the fears surrounding war and stagflation, given that peace negotiations are proving difficult to conclude quickly.

HESPER FUND – Global Solutions macro scenario: Uncertainty About the Length of the War Remains

In May, traders had become increasingly optimistic that a deal would be reached. However, time passed and the standoff continued. It seems that Trump’s approach has reached it’s limits. The U.S. is closing in on a framework for negotiations with Iran that could reopen the Strait of Hormuz and pave the way for more substantive talks, according to U.S. officials. Meanwhile, trade disruptions are stoking fears of stagflation as uncertainty about the war’s length rises.

The global economy is facing mounting headwinds as the war in the Middle East further pushes price growth. While expansionary fiscal policies and productivity-enhancing investments support growth, fiscal space is limited and debt levels are elevated. Thus, the outlook for bonds is bleak. It will be quite a challenge for the new Fed chairman to contain Fed hawks as inflation lingers.

Monthly performance and current positioning

The HESPER FUND – Global Solutions (T-6 EUR) rose 1.92%, thanks to a balanced blend of equities and exposure to commodities and FX, with no duration. Total assets rose 2.9% to €51.9 million. Annualised volatility over the past 250 days ticked up to 7.7%, while the annualised return since inception increased to 4.25%.

Although oil prices slid from their highs, they continued to trade at elevated levels amid doubts over the Iran peace talks. We remain vigilant regarding policy and geopolitical developments. During the month, the fund further reduced duration to one year, employing a mix of long and short strategies. The fund kept the equity quota at 38%. Gold exposure was maintained at a stable level of 7%, taking into accounts ETCs and exposure to gold miners. Exposure to commodities was kept at 6%, helping to offset higher energy prices. Exposure to the Australian dollar against the US currency was raised up to 33%.

Outlook: A Changing World Order in Motion

The sharp pivot in US economic, political, military and geopolitical policy culminated in the war against Iran. We expect significant fallout that could reshape globalisation. US leadership is no longer what it once was, and many alliances are set to change. This new era of resource imperialism comes with risks.

In Trump’s world, unpredictable policy is the norm, so we frequently adapt the portfolio to capitalise on or cushion the impact of his decisions. Consequently, we avoid large, concentrated bets.

In summary, the HESPER FUND – Global Solutions remains constructive on stocks, depending on region and sector. We are wary about the trend of yields as inflation bites harder, and keen on commodities. In FX space, we continue to bet on the appreciation of the NOK and the AUD. Regarding the US dollar, much will depend on whether the new Fed can convince the markets to price out the rate hikes it has already implemented, albeit at the risk of undermining its independence and credibility to some extent.

*HESPER FUND - Global Solutions is currently only authorised for distribution in Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, Italy, France, Austria and Switzerland.

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