Point de gestion

To the latest Market Commentary

Ethna-DEFENSIV

State: 31.03.2025

Key points at a glance

• Germany: fiscal programme leads to higher yields
• USA: major uncertainties emanating from the White House and rapidly cooling the economy
• High volatility in US yields and fears about demand for US Treasuries
• More stability in the portfolio: duration slightly reduced, higher coupon income secured

Market developments and performance

The new German fiscal policy was the key event for Ethna-DEFENSIV last month. The EUR 500 billion defence and infrastructure package recently approved by the German parliament (plus theoretically unlimited funds for defence) led to a significant increase in government bond issuance and an expansionary fiscal policy.

The consequence: an historic rise in yields on 10-year German government bonds from below 2.5% to 2.93% on the day of the decision – a move that Germany has not seen since reunification in 1990. This development had a direct impact on our portfolio and pushed the monthly performance into negative territory. In March, the fund recorded a performance of -1.3% (T-class), while the performance since the beginning of the year is now close to zero (T-class).

International market development

Outside Europe, bond markets were characterised by high volatility, particularly in the US. The economic policy agenda of the new US administration under President Trump is causing uncertainty in the markets. In particular, the announced tariff policy is causing investors to oscillate between two extreme scenarios: a possible resurgence of inflation and a slowdown in economic growth, possibly even a recession. Every new macroeconomic figure from the US was closely watched, but the main sources of information remained Trump's account on Truth Social and his daily press conferences at the White House.

This uncertainty caused considerable fluctuations on the financial markets. The yield of the 10-year US Treasuries fluctuated between 4.40% and 4.15% several times during the month but closed only slightly below the starting value. While yields on 10-year bonds fell slightly, those on 30-year bonds rose, further steepening the yield curve. This indicates a change in perceptions of the US debt problem: should an economic slowdown materialise, the government would be forced to take on new debt to boost the economy. This is causing additional uncertainty among investors and leading to a withdrawal from long-term US government bonds

Portfolio adjustments

Within the portfolio, we took advantage of the historic rise in yields in Europe to increase our exposure to long-dated euro bonds from high-quality issuers. We focused on the 2032-2033 maturity range - a moderate duration with an attractive yield premium over shorter-dated bonds.

In addition, we have added GBP-denominated bonds to our portfolio and increased the British pound exposure to 5% of the fund volume. This addition promises us an attractive return of over 5% with low FX fluctuation.

At the end of the month, we reduced the portfolio duration from 6.5 to 5.5 by closing the duration overlay on long-dated US Treasuries. This tactical adjustment gives our portfolio more stability in a market environment in which yields could move in either direction.

Outlook and strategy

Our current strategy is geared towards balance: we are taking advantage of higher coupon income at the longer end of the European yield curve, while there is currently no exposure to long US maturities. This positioning is in line with the conservative nature of our fund: we are taking advantage of opportunities while limiting risks.
We are waiting for more clarity in the foreseeable future and will not take any significant risks – ensuring our investors have peace of mind.

Ethna-AKTIV

State: 31.03.2025

Key points at a glance

• Ethna-AKTIV (T) lost 2.77% in March.
• The bond exposure increased slightly to 61.5%. The average rating is A- to A. LONG positions in US 10-year and 20-year bond futures increase the modified duration from 6.7y to 10.
• The net equity exposure was reduced by 5.9% to 38.6%. In addition to a few individual stocks, the entire 5.1% position in the Swiss Market Index (SMI) was sold.
• The portfolio's currency exposure is currently 6.4% (5.4% GBP and 1% USD).
  
  

Market developments and performance

March was dominated by political uncertainty, which had a noticeable impact on markets.

Peace talks in Ukraine made no progress and instead a trade war loomed. Even before the publication of new US tariffs announced for 2 April, it was already known at the end of the month that car imports to the US would become 25% more expensive. At the same time, the EU fleshed out its 800 billion ‘ReArm Europe’ programme. In Germany, a fiscal package of a magnitude previously thought impossible was agreed.

Against this backdrop, both equity and bond markets experienced a significant increase in volatility, accompanied by renewed fears of stagflation. Yields rose on both sides of the Atlantic in the face of increased refinancing needs and renewed tariff-related inflation fears. German government bonds fell the most since 1990 (the year of German reunification) in response to the fiscal package announced earlier in the month.

Equity strategy

The picture on the equity markets was mixed:
US indices fell to new annual lows despite a temporary recovery. European stock markets gave up their monthly gains by the end of the month. The Ethna-AKTIV portfolio was only slightly adjusted. In this volatile environment, the equity portfolio is slightly defensive with a focus on US equities. Our outlook: We believe that the correction in the US equity market is a consolidation and not the start of a bear market.

In response to the increased uncertainty, particularly regarding US tariffs, we have closed out the 5% futures contract on the Swiss equity index. The net equity allocation of 38.6% thus consists of 30.5% in US large caps and 8.1% in S&P500 futures. We remain slightly underweight in technology stocks.

Bond strategy

The overall ratio is 61.5% - with only slight adjustments. Bonds denominated in British pounds totalling 5.3% were newly included. These high credit quality bonds can earn an attractive return of over 5% with low FX volatility and the opportunity to participate in an appreciation of the pound that we expect. The modified duration of the portfolio is 6.7.
As we expect lower interest rates in the US, we have increased the interest rate sensitivity to 10 using a futures overlay (10- and 20-year Treasuries). This reflects our view on interest rates, where we currently attach little importance to higher inflation. In addition, this interest rate position is a very good natural diversifier in the event of weaker growth.

Currency strategy

Our hedging of the US dollar risk has proved effective. We expect the greenback to remain weak and are therefore maintaining our full hedging of the US currency risk. A more in-depth analysis of the US dollar can be found in this month's market commentary.

Ethna-DYNAMISCH

State: 31.03.2025

Key points at a glance

• March was characterised by increasing uncertainty about future economic and geopolitical developments.
• Despite the volatility on the surface, most things happened below the surface of the broad stock market indices.
• We continued to adapt the Fund's portfolio to the market environment with a large number of ongoing portfolio adjustments.
  
  

Current market situation: a time of change

There is no doubt that we are currently in a phase in which an above-average amount is happening in a short period of time. Some of it we will no longer remember in a year. Other events will be perceived in retrospect as historic turning points for the coming years, if not decades. It is almost impossible to separate the one from the other in the hustle and bustle of the present. What remains is a high level of uncertainty. Among entrepreneurs, as well as among politicians, central bankers, consumers and investors.

Our approach: stability in turbulent times

At least it won't be boring! This sentence could be used to gloss over the daily flood of news on geopolitical, domestic and macroeconomic issues. However, the majority of our customers have not only opted for an investment in the Ethna-DYNAMISCH because of its focus on equities, but also to add a bit of boredom – in a positive sense – to their portfolio.

Current developments on the stock markets

The stock markets are currently performing very differently:

• USA: The high weighting of US equities in global indices has caught many investors off guard. Large technology companies and cyclical stocks in particular have continued to fall. Defensive stocks (such as utilities and consumer staples) have performed better.
• Europe: The picture here is different – cyclically sensitive stocks continued to perform positively well into March but also had to give up gains towards the end of the month.
  However, this pendulum movement seems to be reaching its limits. The key drivers in our view – valuation differences, economic momentum, investor sentiment and positioning – appear to have been exhausted for the time being. The speed at which some of these adjustment processes have taken place is impressive.

Active management of our portfolio

Numerous position adjustments have recently been made in an anti-cyclical manner against the outlined background. The following points should be emphasised:

• The equity allocation was temporarily below 70% after we reduced more positions than we added to. It was only with a broader sell-off in the market towards the end of the month that we made a few more purchases in the portfolio.
• One example of our active management: At the end of February, Commerzbank shares were among our top 10 positions. After a further rise of 20% at the peak, we sold them all in March. Just in time, before the share price fell again by a double-digit percentage.
• We added Novo Nordisk, Europe's largest pharmaceutical company, to our portfolio. The stock was overvalued for a long time following the success of the weight-loss product Wegovy. This overvaluation has come down over the past nine months, albeit accompanied by clinical study results that were slightly below market expectations. In the medium term, however, we are very confident that Novo Nordisk will be able to maintain its strong position in a dynamically growing market and that it will be a new core position in the portfolio.
  Adjustments to bonds and currencies.
• Apart from equities, there were also significant fluctuations on the bond and currency markets.
• US government bonds were caught between fears of inflation and recession. Again, we took a countercyclical approach, at one point halving the 10% position in long-dated government bonds, only to increase it slightly later when yields looked more attractive.
• We took a similar approach to the US dollar (USD). We first reduced our exposure from 20% to 10% and then increased it back to the starting position. This small move alone saved the fund 40 basis points in a few days.

Outlook: What's next?

Uncertainty among investors is already high and has been priced into large parts of the market. Much of the action so far has been below the surface, opening up numerous opportunities to continuously adjust the fund portfolio – both in terms of allocation and stock selection.

We expect the uncertainty to continue for the time being. Our concentrated equity portfolio will remain a solid investment. Whether the net equity exposure will be at a comparable, higher or lower level in a month's time remains to be seen. In the current environment, anything seems possible.

We hope the period ahead is as stress-free as possible for our investors – in the spirit of the ‘positive boredom’ that many associate with their investment in the Ethna-DYNAMISCH!

The content of this page is intended for professional investors only.