Portfolio Manager Update | HESPER FUND - Global Solutions

HESPER FUND – Global Solutions (*)

State: 30/11/25

Key points at a glance

• Markets suddenly became afraid of the AI spending boom. Following the turbulence of the first three weeks, stocks ended the month in recovery.
• Peace talks to end the war between Ukraine and Russia finally started.
• The global economy remains resilient, underpinned by fiscal and monetary support, with the service sector holding up well.
• The HESPER FUND – Global Solutions fell by 0.67% in November amid stock market volatility. Year-to-date performance is at 5.32%.
• The HESPER FUND adjusted its portfolio only slightly in response to improved visibility.

HESPER FUND – Global Solutions Macro scenario: Stocks rebound on rate cut optimism

Following a brief period of relief after the shutdown ended, investors sold tech shares amid growing concerns about the AI spending spree. At one point, the market rout affected everything from tech to crypto to gold.

By the end of the month, weak US economic data had increased the likelihood of a Fed rate cut, which underpinned the recovery of stocks. The AI frenzy continues, but the debate about overspending persists.

Monthly performance and current positioning

The HESPER FUND – Global Solutions (T-6 EUR) fell by 0.67%, as stock prices fluctuated and the price of gold moved back towards record highs. Total assets decreased slightly to €51.4. Volatility over the past 250 days increased to 6%. The annualised return since inception slipped to 3.7%.

As the macroeconomic outlook becomes clearer, the need for rotating positioning diminished, although we remain wary about further policy and geopolitical developments. During the month, the fund increased its exposure to gold to 9%, kept the equity quota at around 49% and raised duration up to 7.6 years.

The performance in November (-0.67%) was as follows: 0.16% for fixed-income instruments; -0.52% for equities; 0.33% for commodities; -0.59% for currencies and -0.05% for fees and expenses.

Outlook: slower growth is not enough to boost sovereign bonds

The sharp shift in US economic, political and geopolitical policies will continue to have a significant impact on the global outlook for 2026. Countries and corporations worldwide will need to adapt to this new reality. Although US protectionism has caused a significant shock to global demand, it has not been enough to derail the global economy. The goal of strategic independence requires a rethink of global economic relationships. The US-China trade relationship can no longer be driven solely by cost and efficiency. Although the US-China reset eases the economic threat posed by higher tariffs, key issues remain unresolved. Despite elevated uncertainty, the global economy remains resilient, and the risk of recession is not on the horizon.

The global economy is adapting to a new economic and geopolitical landscape. The outlook is clouded by volatile policy developments and heightened uncertainty. Conversely, there is a technology-driven productivity boom. Innovations produced by today’s IT industry are revolutionizing many other sectors, including manufacturing, transportation, healthcare and education. Meanwhile, fierce competition between the US and China in areas such as biotechnology, robotics, artificial intelligence and nanotechnology is intensifying and forcing political realignments.

In Trump’s world, policy uncertainty is the norm, so we are adopting a cautious approach. We are keeping exposure low across most asset classes and avoiding large, concentrated investments. The HESPER FUND – Global Solutions aims to maintain a high level of exposure to gold. Activity in the FX space remains highly dynamic. Recently, we opened a short position of 9% on the British pound and keep a long one on the Norwegian krone. The equity quota ranges from 45% to 50%, with geographical diversification. The overall duration of the portfolio has increased to 7.6 years, primarily as a hedge against significant market volatility.

*HESPER FUND - Global Solutions is currently only authorised for distribution in Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, Italy, France, Austria and Switzerland.

** It excludes an arbitrage in the forward market between the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar. This transaction artificially elevates the overall exposure to the dollar to 89%, where it would otherwise be 0%.

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