Portfolio Manager Update | HESPER FUND - Global Solutions

HESPER FUND – Global Solutions (*)

State: 05/02/26

Key points at a glance

• Trump flexed his muscles by capturing Maduro and seizing Venezuelan’s oil. He struck a framework deal over the future of Greenland after jeopardizing NATO and trade peace with the EU. He threatened Canada over its intention to renew commercial ties with China. And he sent a powerful armada heading to Iran to force a nuclear deal.
• The US dollar sank to its lowest level in four years amid growing concerns about the state of fiscal policy and the erratic actions of the US government, rather than monetary policy.
• Takaichi’s tax plan caused Japanese bonds to fall, exacerbating the global bond market’s weakness.
• The global economy remains resilient despite the geoeconomic approach and the fading of the rules-based international order, underpinned by fiscal and monetary support.
• The HESPER FUND – Global Solutions (T-6 EUR) increased by 82% in January, reaching a new high as the rally in gold and other metals continued.
• The HESPER FUND adjusted its portfolio in response to geopolitical risks and dollar woes.

HESPER FUND – Global Solutions Macro scenario: Stocks hovered around record highs while metals extended a powerful rally amid heightened geopolitical tensions

Whether deliberately or not, Donald Trump continues to frighten those holding dollars. The debasement trade worked well in January. His attempt to grab Greenland risked dismantling the Western alliance and fuelling distrust in Europe.

There is a brave new world emerging in the Japanese fixed-income market. Prime Minister Sanae Takaichi called a snap election to increase her party’s majority and execute a large fiscal stimulus plan, while BOJ governor Ueda signalled that interest rates should continue to rise to defeat inflation. This change is having a significant impact across the entire bond market, as the carry trade has become a risky investment.

Crypto assets plummeted, highlighting their growing isolation from the rest of the market. Meanwhile, the Swiss franc confirmed its status as a safe haven in the current context.

Monthly performance and current positioning

The HESPER FUND – Global Solutions (T-6 EUR) increased by 3.82%, as metals surged to record highs.  Total assets increased to 54 million Euro. Over the past 250 days, volatility has remained stable at around 6.1%. The annualised return since inception rose to 4.3%.

Surprisingly, the global economy has remained resilient despite the many unexpected events. However, we are keeping a close eye on policy and geopolitical developments. During the month, the fund maintained an overall duration of 5.5 years, generating profits through shorting JGB futures. It also maintained its gold exposure at the highest possible level and reduced and diversified its equity quota to 44%.  The fund ended the month 12% short on the dollar.

Outlook: is excess fiscal stimulus scaring bondholders?

The sharp shift in US economic, political and geopolitical policies will continue to have a significant impact on the global outlook in 2026. In Trump’s world, policy uncertainty is the norm, so we are adjusting the portfolio to profit from the consequences of many of his decisions. Rounds of brinkmanship are permanent. With the world economy hooked on government debt, the combination of rearmament, an ageing population, technological change and voter fear is fuelling a risky trend.

We are diversifying our equity exposure in favour of certain sectors and emerging markets, while reducing our exposure to large-cap US indices. In the FX space, we are continuing to cautiously bet against the USD, as Trump has recently made clear by embracing a weak dollar and continuing to criticize the Fed.
In the era of resource imperialism, the value of metals and commodities is no longer determined by supply and demand, but by heavy geopolitical intervention. The HESPER FUND Global Solutions remains wary of the outlook for government bonds and is therefore reducing duration or implementing long/short strategies to mitigate the impact of the large-scale fiscal stimulus currently being implemented across the globe.

*HESPER FUND - Global Solutions is currently only authorised for distribution in Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, Italy, France, Austria and Switzerland.

** It excludes an arbitrage in the forward market between the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar. This transaction artificially elevates the overall exposure to the dollar to 89%, where it would otherwise be 0%.

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