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The ECB and the Fed will announce their rate decisions on respectively 14 and 20 September and this time their policies may diverge. Due to the stubbornly high inflation in Europe, the ECB may announce another rate hike, while the Fed is not expected to raise its key interest rates due to the falling US inflation.

Despite a slowdown in growth and a monetary policy that is considered tight, the late-cycle economic expansion continues unabated. The global economy is proving more resilient than forecasted and, in the short term, there are no clear signs of impending recession. However, the waning recovery and the mounting challenges in China’s real estate sector and financial sectors are worrying. In our Market Commentary, Michael Blümke outlines Ethenea’s view of the current macroeconomic environment and expectations for the coming quarters.

Despite the most aggressive tightening cycle of the past 40 years, the global economy remains resilient. Although the economy will continue to weaken, the risk of recession has diminished greatly in recent months. In our Market Commentary, Michael Blümke outlines Ethenea’s view of the current macroeconomic environment and expectations for the coming quarters.

ECB officials have already announced another 25 basis point rate hike in July. This will take the deposit rate to 3.75%. The outlook for September is more exciting as there is no meeting scheduled in August. There is currently no clear trend towards another rate hike in September.

Michael Blümke discusses a topical issue: despite all the difficulties, the world’s economy has proved significantly more resilient than had been expected at the start of the year. The widely forecast recession has failed to materialise, and speculation about rate cuts has given way to plans for further rate hikes. Find out how Ethenea views the current macroeconomic environment in our Market Commentary.