Portfolio Manager Update | HESPER FUND - Global Solutions

HESPER FUND – Global Solutions (*)

State: 06/01/26

Key points at a glance

• Markets ended a hectic year, which was marked by Trump’s policies, on a positive note.
• Global bond yields reached a 16-year high as bets on rate cuts faded.
• The global economy remains resilient, underpinned by fiscal and monetary support, with the service sector performing well.
• The HESPER FUND – Global Solutions rose by 1.1% in December amid a rebound in stocks and a gold rally. Year-to-date performance is around 6.5%.
• The HESPER FUND adjusted its portfolio only slightly in response to improved visibility.

HESPER FUND – Global Solutions Macro scenario: Stocks reached record highs and precious metals hit historic peaks

US GDP grew by 4.3% in the third quarter, the fastest growth in two years. This was bolstered by resilient consumer and business spending, as well as calmer trade policies. However, Bessent’s remarks on revising the Fed’s 2% target weakened the US dollar. The lower inflation figure was not considered reliable.

The ECB kept interest rates at 2%, while raising growth forecasts for next year and 2027. ECB officials say the cycle of rate cuts is most likely over.

The Bank of Japan (BoJ) raised interest rates to their highest level in 30 years and signalled that more increases are likely, as Japan’s inflation rate remained at 3%. However, the JPY remained weak, with sovereign yields rising above 2%.

Crypto assets benefited from a new and favourable regulatory environment, which was driven by the Trump administration. The enactment of the GENIUS Act in July provided crypto with a final boost, but Bitcoin has faltered since mid-October, falling 30% from its peak erasing and the year gains. Conversely, distrust in fiat currencies has paid off in the precious metals sector, with gold, silver and platinum prices soaring this year.

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Monthly performance and current positioning

The HESPER FUND – Global Solutions (T-6 EUR) rose 1.1%, as global stocks rose and the price of gold reached a historic high. Total assets increased slightly to 51.8 million Euro. Over the past 250 days, volatility remained stable at around 6%. The annualised return since inception edged to 3.8%.

As the macroeconomic outlook becomes clearer, the need for rotating positioning diminishes.  However, we remain wary of further policy and geopolitical developments. During the month, the fund reduced its overall duration to 5.5 years by shorting JGB futures. It also kept its exposure to gold as high as possible and maintained its equity quota at 50%.  

The performance in December (1.1%) was as follows: -0.49% for fixed-income instruments, 1.3% for equities, 0.62% for commodities, -0.2% for currencies, and -0.12% for fees and expenses.

Outlook: is excess fiscal stimulus scaring bondholders?

The sharp shift in US economic, political and geopolitical policies will continue to significantly impact the global outlook in 2026. Countries and corporations worldwide will need to adapt to this new reality. Although US protectionism has caused a significant shock to global demand, this has not been enough to derail the global economy. The goal of strategic independence requires a rethink of global economic relationships. The US-China trade relationship can no longer be driven solely by cost and efficiency. Although the US-China reset eases the economic threat posed by higher tariffs, key issues remain unresolved. Despite elevated uncertainty, the global economy is gaining strength, and the risk of recession is receding.

In Trump’s world, policy uncertainty is the norm, so we are maintaining a cautious approach. We are keeping exposure low across most asset classes and avoiding large, concentrated investments, just to bet sporadically and briefly on the FX space. The HESPER FUND – Global Solutions remains constructive on stocks and is currently assessing exposure to gold and gold miners (13%). We are inclined to reduce duration slightly further, since anemic growth supported by large fiscal stimulus is not helping bonds.

*HESPER FUND - Global Solutions is currently only authorised for distribution in Germany, Luxembourg, Belgium, Italy, France, Austria and Switzerland.

** It excludes an arbitrage in the forward market between the US dollar and the Hong Kong dollar. This transaction artificially elevates the overall exposure to the dollar to 89%, where it would otherwise be 0%.

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