Michael Blümke, CFA, CAIA

Growth prospects are improving globally. In light of this, inflation data will remain persistently higher than the central bank target despite the successes in previous quarters. Nevertheless, both the ECB and the Fed will follow Switzerland’s example and start cutting interest rates in June. In our view, the biggest future risk apart from the ongoing geopolitical challenges is the problem of national debt.

Centrale banken kijken naar gegevens terwijl politici zich voorbereiden op verkiezingen. In ongeveer 70 landen worden verkiezingen gehouden. De peilingen zullen een impact hebben. Monetair beleid, economische activiteit en geopolitieke spanningen zullen de economie blijven beïnvloeden. Terwijl de Amerikaanse economie blijft uitblinken als economische motor, lijken Europa en China het momentum nog niet te kunnen oppikken. Rentebeslissingen in Europa en politiek ingrijpen in China zouden de economie verder kunnen stimuleren.

Central banks are looking at the data, while politicians are gearing up for elections. Around 70 countries are set to go to the polls. These elections will have a impact. Monetary policy, economy and geopolitical tensions will further affect the economy. While the US economy remains an economic powerhouse, Europe and China seem unable to get out of the starting blocks. Interest rate policy in Europe and political intervention in China could stimulate the economy further.